It will be very interesting the order we see the races come in on election night. It’s fun that we predict through our “Cattle Calls” which seats we think are going to flip from the most likely to the far-reaching, but even more so, we will know rather quickly on election night if Democrats will have a shot at the magical-filibuster-proof majority (for the last time, 60 seats is NOT a veto-proof majority).
EAST: As the east coast polls close we’ll see Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, and North Carolina first at varying times given the different poll closing times, getting 2 to 4 seats and a big indication of if it’s going to be a 5-6 seat pick-up or 8-9.
CENTRAL: Then we get some big-time news with Minnesota and Mississippi-B (even Louisiana to boot). Right there, we’ll have a lot of the current “Lean GOP” races called (if they can be) in Maine, North Carolina, Minnesota, and Mississippi-B.
As we complete the Central area, Democrats will know if their dream of a 60-seat filibuster majority is viable or if they are in for a good night with a 6 seat pick-up. Of course by this point, we Democrats hope that we can take whatever races we have won thus far and add +4 more onto them.
MOUNTAIN WEST: We move into the next category which should hopefully be races that are called as soon as the polls are closed in New Mexico and Colorado. Let’s hope there is no uncertainty when these polls close.
PACIFIC: Finally we have Oregon, followed by Alaska. Neither of these of course are certain, and if things aren’t going out way, we could end up with the “floor” of seats at DEM+4, or we could be riding a Democratic wave all the way to DEM+10 (and my dream of having 60 without Lieberman being needed for cloture).
I am hopeful that by the time the polls close in my home state of Florida (panhandle included), we’ll be off to an excellent start with at least 3 seats on the East coast which will make my nerves a little bit less stressed as we move across the nation, both for the presidential election (which should be a no brainer) and our fate in the Senate.
These were the closing times in 2006:
6 PM Eastern Most of Kentucky, most of IN
7 PM Eastern VT,VA,DC, GA,rest of KY, rest of IN,most of NH (this makes no sense)
Should be a quick pickup in NH and a check on the House (Shea-Porter) and Presidency (NH and VA)
7:30 PM Eastern OH,WV
If McCain takes Ohio it is a close night. If Anne Barth beats Shelley More Capito, we have something going in the House.
8 PM Eastern The flood gates open. NJ,MA,CT,ME,NH, PA,MD,DE,FL,IL,TN,AL,MS,MO,OK, much of TX
Quick pickups in NJ-3, NJ-7 might be significant; NJ-5 will either be close or a GOP hold. Go Shulman. As Maine goes so goes the filibuster? NS and OK? Well, MS-B.
8:30 NC,ARK
9 PM Flood gates II NY,RI,MI(most at 8), MN,WI,LA,KS,NE,AZ,CO,NM,SD,TX,WY
10 PM IA,MT,NV,UT
11 PM CA,ID,ND,OR,WA,HI
Midnight Most of Alaska
1 AM Eastern Part of Aleutians
That last hour extends to about 1% of the state’s population. Could they move it up please?
A national polling day with hours stretching from 6 AM to midnight Eastern time actually makes sense.
In ’06 VA was one of the first for the polls to close but the senate race one of the last to be called. On the presidential race it will be quite easy to see a pattern quite quickly. For instance KY will probably be called for McCain straight away whatever but Indiana will give us an indication of the big picture right away. If it is too close to call alot of Repubs will be, how did Mickey Kantor put it, ”shitting”. I remember 1992 being over pretty much immediately when Georgia was called for Clinton. Same thing here if Barack can win Virginia.